Addendum: This is being written on Tuesday’s flight but I will withhold publishing it until Monday.

I’ve spent the last few minutes looking at the current mileage for the top three contenders in this 1000km race and I’ve determined that I have only one opportunity to win this thing, assuming Alberto doesn’t ride 100km/day for the next 4 days and end it before I’m back in my own bed. I believe, perhaps incorrectly, that Adam will be cautious with his knee until he’s sorted it out. This does not remove him from consideration, rather it makes him more dangerous as he’s already shown a willingness to go out and put massive mileage down in a single day. To thwart this, it’s best to put this competition to bed as soon as possible before he feels confident enough to do so.

Alberto rides in fits and starts but you can see his growth over the past couple of weeks. He’s shown he’s capable of more than just a day or two of riding 60km and that he’ll push it out to at least 100km. He’s not hurt, he’s not sick and he has the freedom of time to ride as long and as often as he wants. That is a big threat.

So, in looking at the numbers, the history and the propensity of all the players to buckle down and get it done,  I need to have 1000km by the time I arrive at work Monday morning. This is a pretty massive challenge for me. 233km in 3 days and one morning. That’s an afternoon ride for a pro but I think it’s pretty clear I’m a marginal CAT 6 rider (and thus not a pro). It will take the support of my wife and kids, especially over Saturday and  Sunday, aka Mother’s Day. If I long-ride on Friday which should be no problem given my 3-day rest from riding, that knocks things down to 178km, give or take. My normal Monday morning is a 28km commute these days so that knocks it down to 150km over 2 days. Assuming an average speed of 20km/h, that’s 7.5 hours of riding (plus prep and maintenance). It doesn’t sound daunting to break it all down like that. Still looks that way.

So 4 hours per day, 2 in the morning and 2 in the evening on Saturday, 3 in the morning and 1 in the evening on Sunday. Going to want something fairly flat and easy to pedal, especially Sunday. Go only with the wind and schedule a pickup at the bottom. I’ll need to plan some courses with alternatives for wind direction. As I rambled about in an earlier post, ideally I’ll ride away from the house to the east and south but if the wind is coming from that direction, I’m going to need a backup plan.

This just might work.

2012.05.14 – It didn’t work that way at all. Chaos ensued, people went bananas and the plan went out the window (but that’s for tomorrow).